Webb29 aug. 2024 · Philip Tetlock has just produced a study which suggests we should view expertise in political forecasting--by academics or intelligence analysts, independent … Webb2 feb. 2015 · The most famous research on prediction was done by Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania, and his seminal 2006 book Expert Political Judgment …
Rage and reason: the psychology of the intuitive prosecutor
Webb7 maj 2024 · In Tetlock’s 20-year study, both the broad foxes and the narrow hedgehogs were quick to let a successful prediction reinforce their beliefs. But when an outcome took them by surprise, foxes were ... Webb8 juli 2016 · Tetlock’s first assault on the edifice of received opinion was a 20-year study into the accuracy of thousands of forecasts from hundreds of academics, analysts and pundits. Expert Political ... churches in greenlawn ny
Rage and reason: the psychology of the intuitive prosecutor
Webb12 jan. 2015 · Philip Tetlock University of Pennsylvania This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequen-tial as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 … Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in … Visa mer Tetlock was born in 1954 in Toronto, Canada and completed his undergraduate work at the University of British Columbia and doctoral work at Yale University, obtaining his PhD in 1979. He has served on the … Visa mer He has published over 200 articles in peer-reviewed journals and has edited or written ten books. Tetlock's research program over the last four decades has explored five themes: 1. the concept of good judgment (with special emphasis on … Visa mer • Official website • Phil Tetlock at Social Psychology Network maintained by Scott Plous Visa mer Webb20 aug. 2015 · According to a study Tetlock et al. published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology, people who knew more about world politics and were given some training in … churches in greenhithe kent